The Modern meta has shown a lot of different looks since the banning of Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis and Faithless Looting and unbanning of Stoneforge Mystic.  The consensus seems to be that the format is so diverse that you can play just about anything you’d like but, as trends in the meta-game begin to solidify, a top tier has become increasingly more defined.

Initially, this sentiment was true, and the abundance of fair midrange decks like Jund and Stoneblade represented a very healthy and appropriately-paced environment.  After a dive into the last 5 weeks of data from the best finishes at the largest Modern events, I’m finding that the time for fair midrange may be running out.

I’m about to go ‘full-geek’ so if you have an adverse reaction to data, I suggest you step away now.  Personally, this kind of thing is what I love about the game and I consider this sort of research one of the most important parts your tournament preparation.

The Data

I started this project out by making a list of all the ‘large’ (generally 200+ players in attendance) Modern tournaments since the B&R update took effect on August 30th.  I scoured the web to find the top 8, or in some case, top 16 decks from as many of those events as I could.  Some of those results were extremely difficult to locate.  This may be a topic for a different day but WoTC’s website, affectionately known as “The Mothership” is not the most accommodating on this front.  Can we get someone on that!?

I digress…

What I came up with may not be 100% of the results qualifying as ‘large’ based on my attendance criteria but is most definitely a big enough sample size to develop a good understanding of which archetypes are enjoying success in this new frontier of Modern.  Though we have TONS of different builds represented with undefeated records in Modern league results bi-weekly, a mere five rounds of Modern doesn’t often do enough to prove a deck’s position against the entire format and, with the “one-of-each” publishing restrictions, we don’t really get an accurate look at the quantity of decks for each style.  Therefore, I narrowed my search to events that were heavily attended and thus, necessitated six plus rounds.

My dataset looks like this:

…which is, no doubt, overwhelming to look at.  You’re in luck because I’ve broken this down in a few different ways that seems to make better sense of what we’re looking at as a whole.  Buckle up.

Highest Representation

Of those 184 decks, the most represented amongst top 8 finishes are as follows:

• 29 Whirza
• 18 Red Deck Wins (RDW)
• 13 UW Stoneblade
• 12 Jund
• 12 G Tron
• 12 E Tron
• 11 Titanshift
• 9 Dredge
• 8 Grixis Death’s Shadow (GDS)
• 4 Amulet Titan

If I were to expand this data to include top 16 finishes, the most represented decks are:

• 38 Whirza
• 26 Red Deck Wins (RDW)
• 20 Jund
• 19 G Tron
• 18 UW Stoneblade
• 17 Dredge
• 15 E Tron
• 14 Titanshift
• 12 Grixis Death’s Shadow (GDS)
• 6 Amulet Titan

As far as tournament winners go, Whirza decks are also the most represented amongst tournament winners.  Here are the results for first place finishes over all of these events:

• 5 Whirza
• 3 G Tron
• 2 Red Deck Wins
• 2 Jund
• 2 Dredge

I’d say making it to the finals is an accomplishment.  Here is the representation for first or second place finishers:

• 8 Whirza
• 6 Red Deck Wins
• 4 UW Stoneblade
• 4 G Tron
• 4 Grixis Death’s Shadow
• 3 Dredge
• 3 Jund

Trends

Immediately after a big B&R shake-up, the format is wild and unpredictable.  Anything can happen, really, and results are often skewed by the latest new toy serving as both a focus for builders of new brews and a consideration of old lists looking to sideboard against this plan.  The banning of Faithless Looting provided the perfect catalyst for this type of environment as things slowed down significantly after decks like UR Phoenix and Hogaakvine were ousted.  As the dust began to settle, pressure points became more apparent and players began to make more informed deck choices that could take advantage of an expected meta.

What interests me the most is the direction each of these archetypes trended throughout the course of the month.  Because I’ve listed the two Modern team events in three rows to represent each player, I’ll chose the 9/13 as my “halfway point” in the month (as to not break up GP Ghent between the two halves).  To predict where Modern is headed, I’ve spent some time comparing these two halves.

Every new meta is greeted with an uptick in Red Deck Wins.  For quite a while, this has been considered one of the top tier archetypes in the format.  This certainly has something to do with its knack for beating up on the untuned versions of newcomers to Modern.  This data represents that point well with nearly 75% of the deck’s top 8 finishes in just the first two weeks.

What I noticed was that Stoneblade decks initially started off strong at the beginning of September with quite a few quality finishes, the big mana decks seemed to take advantage of this movement towards Midrange strategies in the second half of the month. Prior to 9/13, UW Stoneblade posted 8 finishes, leaving just 5 for the second half (9/13-9/28) whereas G Tron decks posted just 3 results in the first half and 9 finishes in the second.  Amulet Titan and Eldrazi Tron follow suit with 1/3 and 5/7 results respectively.

Whirza decks, on the other hand, began the month off with the second highest representation (behind RDW) with 11 finishes and INCREASED that rate to a whopping 18 in the second half for an overall highest representation throughout the entire sample.

Keep in mind that most of this data occurs prior to Modern legality for Emry, Lurker of the Loch and Wishclaw Talisman.  If this trend continues, I would imagine we may be talking about Whirza decks with the same sort of concern as something like KCI.  While it doesn’t currently appear as oppressive, early versions of Emry Whirza run anywhere from six to eight copies of Mox Opal and Mox Amber without batting an eye.  While the details remain murky on what is tolerable for meta representation based on WoTC’s previous Banned and Restricted actions, it’s been made clear by the banning of Moxen in Legacy that free mana producing artifacts are worth keeping an eye on.

Emry Whirza [IanKleinMTG Modern League 5-0 on 9/2019]

Please don’t get me wrong.  I am certainly not saying that Whirza should be banned.  My point is merely that its got the potential to get to that point very quickly.  Especially if WoTC decides to keep on printing new presents for the deck…

That certainly doesn’t appear to be the case.

Conclusions

All in all, the Stoneforge unban/Looting and Gaak ban seemed to be a net positive for the format.  For a while there we got to see what interactive Magic was like.  I fear that we might be headed back towards a combo-oriented environment in which we’ll be pressured to do our own thing faster than an opponent can do theirs.  I hope I’m wrong about that.

What you can glean from this is merely an informed guess of what you might come across in a competitive Modern event.  Consider the following decks in the top tier for this first month of Modern without Looting or Gaak based on their success on the tournament circuit:

• Whirza (trending up)
• Red Deck Winds (trending down)
• UW Stoneforge (trending down)
• Jund (maintaining)
• Green Tron (trending up)

I’d expect Dredge and Titanshift to be taking the place of Stoneforge and Red decks in no time.  Either way, all seven strategies remain heavily represented and it would be silly not to factor any match-up in your deck building or sideboard crafting decisions.  It’s not time to shelve the graveyard hate.  The moment we do, Dredge takes over the format.  And its not time to assume we’ll be facing Midrange value decks because Tron decks and Scapeshift will be waiting to pounce.